Maeda may need a 'reset' after leaving start with arm injury

April 26th, 2023

MINNEAPOLIS -- threw his 72nd pitch of the afternoon, and when catcher started to throw the ball back to the mound, Maeda held up both hands, signaling him to stop. For the second time, head athletic trainer Nick Paparesta emerged from the Minnesota dugout -- and that time, Maeda left the field with him.

Things couldn’t have gone much worse for the 35-year-old veteran on Wednesday, as he allowed a career-high 10 earned runs in three-plus innings before exiting with muscle discomfort and soreness in his right arm that turned some already dicey uncertainty into full-blown questions as the Twins emerge from a 12-6 loss to the Yankees that prevented Minnesota’s first three-game sweep of New York since 1991.

Among those questions: Will some time away help recover the noticeably diminished stuff Maeda has shown in his last two outings? And how much runway will the Twins give him upon his return, with and waiting their turn in Triple-A?

“The positive part of this is that it’s not on the medial side [of the arm],” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “It’s not on the side where you would normally be very concerned. One way or the other, he’s going to need some time off. I can’t really speak to the specifics of it now.”

It’s hard to blame Maeda for wanting to gut out this appearance in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and only one start after taking a line drive flush off his left ankle. He and the Twins determined he was healthy enough to make the start, but he exited the game having upped his tally to 16 earned runs allowed in 16 innings this season.

On a bunt down the first-base line by Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the second, Maeda made a diving attempt and was slow to get up, appearing to favor his back. That brought Paparesta to the mound for the first time, though Maeda was allowed to remain in the game following a pair of warmup pitches.

In the fourth inning, the first five Yankees batters all reached base against Maeda before Paparesta once again emerged from the dugout to remove the right-hander. Maeda was not available after the game due to the need to undergo MRIs.

Maeda didn’t get much help from his fundamentally unsound defense, but Wednesday’s issues marked the latest setback in a much messier return to the mound than he would have hoped following his September 2021 Tommy John surgery. He had to skip his third start due to lingering arm fatigue, and his last outing was cut short after two innings by the comebacker.

“It feels like not a lot of things have gone his way so far,” Baldelli said. “But now that we’re at this point, this is definitely going to be some type of reset for him so he can get his arm feeling better, first and foremost.”

All the while, Maeda’s already meager fastball velocity has been noticeably diminished, ebbing from an average of 91.6 mph in his 2020 Cy Young runner-up season down to 90.6 mph in ‘21 and down even further to 89.9 mph in ‘23.

Maeda averaged 88.6 mph on Wednesday, with none in excess of 90 mph. He has attributed that to still trying to “find [his] groove” while coming off the arm fatigue, but it appeared to be trending in the wrong direction.

With all that said, what could Maeda’s situation look like when he returns?

That will depend on how the injuries look at that point and how well Maeda’s stuff recovers during this anticipated stint away from the field. It’s also more of a question because the Twins’ pitching depth has remained both intact and effective.

Beyond Minnesota’s other four starters, both Ober and Varland have looked stout at Triple-A St. Paul and in big league spot starts, seeming prepared for an expanded role whenever one presents itself.

Ober held Washington to one run in 5 2/3 innings in a spot start on Sunday, and that’s not to mention his 3.74 career ERA in the Majors across parts of three seasons. Varland made the spot start at Yankee Stadium on April 14 when Maeda skipped his turn, allowing three runs in six strong innings.

Ober would be the logical replacement for Maeda in the short-term -- but the Twins will need to wait for the results of the imaging to see what the future holds.